Based upon current and projected climate signals, the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) consortium forecasts that Atlantic Basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity will be 155% above average in 2005. In its February Forecast Update, TSR forecasts 13.6 (+/- 3.3) tropical cyclones, of which 7.7 (+/- 2.3) are predicted to be hurricanes. 3.5 (+/- 1.6) of these are forecast to be intense hurricanes in the category 3 - 5 range. The consortium forecasts that 4.2 (+/- 2.2) tropical storms will make landfall in the United States, with 2.0 (+/- 1.6) of these having hurricane status.
Monthly Forecast Updates will be issued through to August 2005 and can be accessed at: www.benfieldhrc.com