Guy Carp predicted below-average activity in the Australia region for the 2009/10 hurricane season
The El Niño oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon could have a significant impact on natural hazards worldwide next year, according to Guy Carpenter.
El Niño is likely to persist through the northern hemisphere winter and into spring, said the reinsurance broker in a catastrophe outlook for 2010.
The El Niño phenomenon is likely to curtail tropical cyclone development in Australia, said Guy Carp. The report predicted below-average activity in the Australia region for the 2009/10 hurricane season, with 8 tropical cyclones expected to develop, significantly less than the long-term average of 11.
A separate forecast for 2010 suggested El Niño will have dissipated by the time the hurricane season starts.
The Colorado State University 2010 hurricane forecast predicted an above-average hurricane season in 2010, with 11 to 16 named tropical storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes expected to develop.
“The forecast serves as a timely reminder that catastrophe activity remains unpredictable as the reinsurance industry prepares for 2010 renewals,” said Guy Carp.
El Niño events have historically produced floods and drought in southern Africa and parts of South America. Heavy rainfall and flooding have also hit Peru and Ecuador in the past. In the United States, El Niño’s potential impact includes above-average precipitation in the south, with below-average rainfall in the Pacific Northwest.