Harm to assets is also likely as a result of fighting between loyalists and pro-coup militants
Corporate asset expropriations are “relatively certain” in the Middle East in near future due to several popular uprisings in the region, experts have warned.
“The ownership of businesses associated with the previous elites will be challenged,” said Exclusive Analysis in a special update on the situation.
“Contract risks will be greatest where land was seized from poorly compensated ordinary people for iconic and now successful developments,” it continued.
Harm to assets is also likely as a result of fighting between loyalists and pro-coup militants, wherever this happens, added the intelligence organisation.
Damage and disruption is most likely around key government assets like television, ports, airports and main transport junctions.
In Libya, for example, a coup (which seems inevitable) would mean some level of continuity, with a military leadership likely to “have more pressing priorities than shaking up commercial deals”.
But over the next few years all major contracts in Libya, including in the oil sector, will be at high risk of renegotiation as rival tribal groups vie for power.