Exclusive Analysis explains how it thinks the political risk situation will evolve in North Africa and the Middle East as well as the impact for business
Exclusive Analysis, which successfully predicted the time frame in which former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak would stand down, has published a list of judgements on how the risk situation will evolve in the Middle East and North Africa.
In Algeria in the long term the commercial risk environment will remain largely unchanged, said Exclusive Analysis, because violent protest will be ruthlessly suppressed. Foreign companies in the Hydra district will be unaffected but hotels near the protest areas could be affected.
In Bahrain the situation is more precarious. There is a significant probability that the present order is completely overthrown and replaced by a new order, said Exclusive Analysis. This is likely to cause the stock exchange to close temporarily.
Violent protests are already underway in Iran but Exclusive Analysis does no think that new government would change much, it would support a nuclear programme and Shia clerics would have a prominent role, for example. The hub port of Bandar Abbas is likely to be effectively shut down by protests, however.
In Jordan there is a high risk of a very violent transition phase, explained Exclusive Analysis, however the monarchy and existing power relations will probably remain. Transport routes (including roads, port and airports) will be blocked. A change in regime could also raise expropriation risks for businesses connected to the ruling family.
Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi is unlikely to be overthrown overnight, said Exclusive Analysis, and the country’s appetite for foreign investment will likely persist. Protests could cause transport hubs to close for several days, though.
A transition in Saudi Arabia could be less violent than in other parts of the region but there’s a high likelihood that the successor could be a radically different Islamist military officer, warned Exclusive Analysis. The oil infrastructure will face delays as a result of this.
President Saleh of Yemen is unlikely to survive and operations in Aden are most likely to be disrupted, continued Exclusive Analysis.
Syria, Oman, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Kuwait, Sudan and Lebanon all show fewer signs of being deeply affected by the civil unrest, concluded Exclusive Analysis.
In the long term (one year), the emergence of Arab resource nationalism is “very likely”.