Eurasia Group published its list of top ten emerging threats
The political risk environment is much “broader” in 2011, according to Eurasia group. “It's the change in the world order itself that gives us most cause for concern.”
Number one on the group’s list of top ten emerging risks is the global governance breakdown, something it terms the G-zero. In the aftermath of the financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn global cooperation on anything from the economy, politics or the environment is hard to come by.
Eurasia also thinks that 2011 will be a year of growing uncertainty for Europe although it thinks the Eurozone will remain intact.
Increasingly sophisticated cyber attackers are a growing risk, continued Eurasia Group. “The primary involvement of states in cybersecurity, as both protagonists and principal targets, fundamentally changes the nature of the risk.”
The growing strength of China was also cited as a risk. “China will talk of participating in global coordination, but they will not follow through,” said Eurasia.
Number five in Eurasia’s list of global risks is the potential for the Korean peninsula situation to spin out of control. “In 2011, the North Koreans are likely to take provocative steps against the south despite reasonably strong pressure from China.”
There is a greater risk that emerging markets will impose capital controls on their currencies to help protect domestic firms. The countries most likely to enact capital controls this year are Colombia, Malaysia, Peru and Thailand, according to Eurasia.
Political gridlock is the strongest risk facing the US in 2011, said Eurasia, and failure to resolve issues could slow the recovery.
Pakistan remains the key security issue in Aisa. “Pakistan is experiencing a near perfect storm of political, economic and social crises all rising in the absence of an effective central government.”
2011 promises to be a challenging year for Mexico too, while Argentina, Hungary, Peru, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Thailand are the other emerging markets with worrying risk profiles.