The Council on Foreign Relations, a US foreign policy think tank, released a report on the most likely conflicts next year that the US government should focus its attention on.
The CFR asked government officials, academics and risk experts to rank a group of possible conflicts into three tiers of relative risk to US national interests (see the maps below).
Tier 1
Tier I are contingencies that directly threaten the US homeland and are likely to trigger US military involvement because they threaten vital national interests or critical resources. These include
| These include: |
| a mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or on a treaty ally |
|---|
| a severe North Korean crisis (e.g., armed provocations, internal political instability, advances in nuclear weapons/ICBM capability) |
| a major military incident with China involving U.S. or allied forces |
| an Iranian nuclear crisis (e.g., surprise advances in nuclear weapons/delivery capability, Israeli response) |
| a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure (e.g., telecommunications, electrical power, gas and oil, water supply, banking and finance, transportation, and emergency services) |
| a significant increase in drug trafficking violence in Mexico that spills over into the United States |
| severe internal instability in Pakistan, triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attacks |
| political instability in Saudi Arabia that endangers global oil supplies |
| a U.S.-Pakistan military confrontation, triggered by a terror attack or U.S. counterterror operations |
| intensification of the European sovereign debt crisis that leads to the collapse of the euro, triggering a double-dip U.S. recession and further limiting budgetary resources |
Tier 2
Tier II are contingencies that affect countries of strategic importance to the US but that do not involve a mutual-defense treaty commitment. These include:
| These include: |
| political instability in Egypt with wider regional implications |
|---|
| a severe Indo-Pak crisis that carries risk of military escalation, triggered by major terror attack |
| a severe Indo-Pak crisis that carries risk of military escalation, triggered by major terror attack |
| rising tension/naval incident in the eastern Mediterranean Sea between Turkey and Israel |
| a major erosion of security and governance gains in Afghanistan with intensification of insurgency or terror attacks |
| an outbreak of widespread civil violence in Syria, with potential outside intervention |
| an outbreak of widespread civil violence in Yemen |
| rising sectarian tensions and renewed violence in Iraq |
| a mass casualty attack on Israel |
| growing instability in Bahrain that spurs further Saudi and/or Iranian military action |
Tier 3
Tier III are contingencies that could have severe or widespread humanitarian consequences but in countries of limited strategic importance to the US. These include:
| These include: |
| military conflict between Sudan and South Sudan |
|---|
| heightened political instability and sectarian violence in Nigeria |
| increased conflict in Somalia, with continued outside intervention |
| political instability in Venezuela surrounding the October 2012 elections or post-Chavez succession |
| political instability in Kenya surrounding the August 2012 elections |
| renewed military conflict between Russia and Georgia |
| an intensification of political instability and violence in Libya |
| violent election-related instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| political instability/resurgent ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan |
| an outbreak of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, possibly over Nagorno Karabakh |
The Center for Preventive Action is solely responsible for this survey and its results. The survey is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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