Both Atlantic Basin and US landfalling hurricane activity are now forecast to be around 120% of the average this year.
This view reinforces TSR's previous predictions and those of other forecasters, Prof Bill Gray and his team at Colorado State University and scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division and the National Hurricane Center.
The two main climate factors influencing the TSR hurricane forecast for the coming season are the expected values in August and September 2004 for (a) the speed of the trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and (b) the temperature of the sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop.
Further details of the latest Atlantic hurricane prediction can be downloaded from Tropical Storm Risk tropical stormrisk.com
Colorado State University : hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2004/june2004